Glaciers Aren’t Cool Anymore.
The meltdown cometh.
From Issue 104 2022.
Words Marian Krogh Protect Our Winters NZ | Above Image Gavin Lang B&W Samuel Smoothy
Skiing on New Zealand’s glaciers is a rite of passage for Kiwi skiers. A spring trip to Tasman Saddle, on the Franz Joseph (Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere) névé, or the classic Symphony on Skis Traverse often sit atop the bucket lists.
But the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s (NIWA) end-of- summer snowline survey results released earlier this year had dire headlines such as ‘Glaciers gone in a decade’. Those of us fortunate enough to have experienced the beauty of glacier corn-skiing with a West Coast sunset panicked.
Surely it can’t be true?
We asked scientists Lauren Vargo (Victoria University Wellington) and Gregor Macara (NIWA) for a summary to explain the survey, and to find out if we could possibly lose some of our beloved glaciers in just 10 years. Every year at the end of summer, New Zealand glaciers are surveyed using photographs taken from a small plane, as part of the aptly named end-of-summer snowline survey. These photos show changes in glacier length and area, but also inform us about changes in glacier mass.
More snow cover and lower elevation snow-lines suggest a glacier gained mass in the previous year, while less snow and higher elevation snowlines suggest a glacier lost mass. Trevor Chinn had the foresight to begin this survey in 1977, giving us a 46-year record of New Zealand glacial change. Over this time, it’s estimated that the volume of glacier ice in New Zealand reduced by around 35 percent, with much of this loss occurring in just the past 20 years.
While the best-known glaciers in New Zealand—such as the Tasman Glacier—are kilometres long, most are much smaller. An inventory of New Zealand glaciers in 2016 found that of the 2,918 glaciers (including Tasman) surveyed, 70 per cent were less than 0.1 km2. And likely selected by Trevor to fit in a camera frame before we started creating 3D models from hundreds of images and GPS image locations.
The unfortunate reality, now, is having to seek alternative glaciers to photograph, primarily because some ‘index’ glaciers are located at lower elevations where there’s now no snow, come summer’s end. So, while it’s mostly the smaller, less-skied glaciers that will be gone in a decade, the brutal reality is our favourite ski mountaineering spots won’t be around much longer either.
The fact is the glaciers aren’t accumulating enough snow in winter, and not enough snow is surviving the summer melt. So, while these spots might still in 10 years’ time, they might not be skiable.
The Murchison Glacier was everyone’s skiing favourite for decades. The Murchison Hut was perfectly positioned for ski-in ski-out access, with lines and connecting glaciers all around. Sadly, the hut has been closed since 2017 due to geological instability. The foundation rocks under the hut are now unstable, as there’s no longer ice holding the rock together. As the glacier shrinks and more black rock is exposed, snow melts even faster.
Murchison Glacier has retreated about 2.5km since 1990, and, according to Macara, is a staggering 29 per cent smaller than in 1978. A moraine lake has steadily grown at its base since 1990, further increasing the rate of decline. Kelman and Tasman Saddle Huts are in dire need of replacement, as anyone who’s spent a night in the Kelman fridge will attest.
But is this a worthwhile investment for DOC? Will they be accessible for much longer?
Realistically, they need to be replaced with a hut that’s easily relocatable. According to DOC’s climate change risk assessment and adaptation plan, a permanent structure just isn’t justifiable while the glaciers change so rapidly. Accessing the Southern Alps’ glaciers for skiing or sightseeing grows more and more challenging every year.
Once a relatively easy walk, getting to Chancellor Hut on the Fox Glacier is now only for those with the skill and determination to navigate the flooding river, the terrifying bowling alley of car-sized boulders, and the massive crevasses moving on and off the glacier. The only alternative access is via helicopter.
In 2014, Fox Glacier lost walking access for guided trips and now only uses helicopters to take visitors to higher elevations. It’s an expensive, carbon-intensive process that separates the haves from the have nots. And how can you be motivated to protect something that’s so hard to see?
Winter 2021 was the warmest winter ever recorded in Aotearoa, with 2020 the second warmest. According to NIWA, temperatures were above average across the whole country, but in Canterbury and Otago they were ‘well above’ average (>1.2°c).
Enthusiastic skiers likely didn’t need an official report, though, as they lounged around town in shorts and jandals. In June.
Will 2022 be our next warmest-ever winter?
Todd Redpath, a snow and glacier scientist at Otago University—and keen splitboarder—has been studying snow in the Southern Alps. So far, there’re few clear trends or predictions, but what has been noted in his studies is a general reduction in snow cover in late spring (Oct-Dec).
Now there doesn’t appear to be any significant trends for snowfall for June-September, but there has been a lot of variability, both within each winter, and winter-to-winter. Note, we’re talking about snow cover here, not snow depth.
Obviously, many readers are concerned about a lack of snow for skiing, but as Redpath notes, you can think of the snow and glaciers on the Southern Alps as water towers that hold water and slowly release it over summer. If more snow falls as rain in the winter, there’s less in storage to use over the summer, and that can impact many things such as irrigation and hydropower, especially during drought years.
It’s not just glacier skiing that’s at risk from global warming: our ski fields are feeling the heat, too. The Canterbury club fields now seem to open and close sporadically. In 2020 Temple Basin didn’t open at all, with many other fields open for just a few weeks. Delayed openings are the norm now.
Snow cover and snowfall haven’t been very well studied in the past. It’s difficult to predict the future with limited historical data, but studies commissioned by Queenstown Lakes District Council (QLDC) predict about a 20 per cent reduction in snow-covered area by 2040. The number of snow days is predicted to be reduced by 25 per cent.
Will 2022 be our next warmest-ever winter?
Todd Redpath, a snow and glacier scientist at Otago University—and keen splitboarder—has been studying snow in the Southern Alps. So far, there’re few clear trends or predictions, but what has been noted in his studies is a general reduction in snow cover in late spring (Oct-Dec).
Now there doesn’t appear to be any significant trends for snowfall for June-September, but there has been a lot of variability, both within each winter, and winter-to-winter. Note, we’re talking about snow cover here, not snow depth.
Obviously, many readers are concerned about a lack of snow for skiing, but as Redpath notes, you can think of the snow and glaciers on the Southern Alps as water towers that hold water and slowly release it over summer. If more snow falls as rain in the winter, there’s less in storage to use over the summer, and that can impact many things such as irrigation and hydropower, especially during drought years.
It’s not just glacier skiing that’s at risk from global warming: our ski fields are feeling the heat, too. The Canterbury club fields now seem to open and close sporadically. In 2020 Temple Basin didn’t open at all, with many other fields open for just a few weeks. Delayed openings are the norm now.
Snow cover and snowfall haven’t been very well studied in the past. It’s difficult to predict the future with limited historical data, but studies commissioned by Queenstown Lakes District Council (QLDC) predict about a 20 per cent reduction in snow-covered area by 2040. The number of snow days is predicted to be reduced by 25 per cent.
But can’t we just make snow? Kind of, but the number of cold days for snow-making are also declining. Ski field areas are all projected to be considerably affected by the reduced snow cover duration, with Cardrona and Coronet Peak appearing the worst hit. Ewan Mackie, sustainability lead at Cardrona and Treble Cone, says they’re very concerned about the effects of the changing climate.
“Locally, we’re seeing significant impacts to the New Zealand ski industry already. The long-term trend is unquestionably one of warmer winters and fundamentally less snow, especially at lower levels. Some forecasted climate models predict increased precipitation, but if the freezing levels rise as predicted, that could mean more rain and less snow. Lower resorts will struggle, and we’ll see increasing situations where there might be heaps of snow up high, but none at resort bases.”
“Cardrona and TC are also already experiencing more extreme weather, such as high-wind events that prevent lifts from running, and really big snowstorms that bring significant operational challenges. We still expect to see many good, snowy winters in NZ, but if this long-term trend continues, we’ll start to run into trouble. We must make changes now, to safeguard our future,” Mackie says.
“We’re not only vulnerable to climate change, but we know our very operation is a contributor. Cardrona and TC have been taking action for some time now, and this action is increasing in pace, as the scale of the climate emergency becomes more apparent. We’re actively reducing the carbon footprint of our operation by investing in efficient machinery, such as groomers and snowmaking.”
“We have free shuttle transport on our access roads and encourage carpooling to try to reduce the emissions from people travelling to the resorts.”
In a landmark move last year, Cardrona and TC removed their landfill bins in order to work towards a waste-free goal. All of their efforts are measured to international standards through a greenhouse gas emissions measuring tool that was developed in collaboration with New Zealand’s entire ski industry.
Future goals include increasing renewable energy and looking at how wind or solar power can be integrated into building and lift infrastructure. An electric gondola from the valley floor is in the long-term vision, too.
These efforts are impressive and industry-leading, no doubt, but there can, and should, be more done. There’s some incentive to take a free bus, but no disincentive to drive. How about a return of the toll road? Behaviour change is tough, but the largest contribution to a Kiwi ski area’s carbon footprint is from people driving. Real NZ and NZSKI have huge voices and should be loud advocates for public transport in the region.
It’s great to see these larger businesses doing the right thing, but let’s put things into perspective: difficulty accessing the glaciers to ski, and shorter ski field seasons overall, are a miniscule aspect of a really big problem. With the privilege of being able to ski and experience our glaciers and beautiful maunga also comes responsibility.
The responsibility is to limit global warming to 1.5°c, and to do this, a lot more needs to change. So, the big question is, what can the average Kiwi skier do about this giant problem?
The most powerful action a winter-lover can take is to vote for the climate. Local elections are coming up this year, so find out more about your candidates’ climate policies. A vote for the climate is a vote for more public and active transport, high density and energy efficient housing, waste reduction and composting services.
Join a community group. Your voice is always louder and more fun when it’s joined with those who share your passion. Get stuck in and actively do something to improve the local areas you love, from planting trees to riding a bike to work.
There are a number of quality local environmental groups to join, like:
Te Kākano https://tekakano.org.nz/
Friends of Bullock Creek https://www.fobc.kiwi/membership
& Protect Our Winters (POW) https://protectourwinters.nz/signup/
POW Aotearoa connects the outdoor community to take climate action, and provides the platform, the tools, and the connection. Join the 200,000 passionate outdoors people worldwide who are POW members creating systemic change.
Move your money. The money in your bank account doesn’t just sit there; while you’re out skiing, your bank is using your money, likely investing it in fossil fuels. Often individual actions mightn’t seem to make a lot of difference, but a powerful individual action you can take is to move your money to a bank, or Kiwisaver fund, that has policies preventing it from funding fossil fuel projects.
There are heaps of actions you can choose to address this complex issue. To quote Jane Goodall,
“The greatest danger to our future is apathy”.
Choose action over apathy.